Landing the No. 1 Seed Unlocks Lions Super Bowl Potential

It goes without saying: clinching the No. 1 seed on either side of the bracket in the NFL Playoffs is a monumental achievement that comes with a wealth of advantages. Securing an extra BYE Week and home-field advantage throughout the tournament go a long way in helping a Super Bowl contender become a Super Bowl champion.

Of course, the Detroit Lions don't have much experience in this territory. The franchise has never clinched the No. 1 seed, let alone reach the Super Bowl. The 2024 season is the closest Detroit has ever been to achieving either of those accomplishments.

While it's a milestone goal for any team with legitimate championship aspirations, securing the No. 1 seed for this particular Lions team is holds so much more value.

Naturally, there's the BYE Week, which this team desperately needs to have an extra breath to get healthy. Nearly two dozen players, primarily from the defensive side of the ball, are on injured reserve. Luckily, some names are already set to return to action, such as Ifeatu Melifonwu.

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Linebackers Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes could return soon, David Montgomery hasn't hit IR yet and could play in the postseason while Aidan Hutchinson is expecting to return if the team reaches the Super Bowl, according to ESPN.

But there is more to it than an off-week and a guaranteed playoff game at Ford Field or two. The odds shift everything in Detroit's favor if they lock up the No. 1 seed.

Half (four of eight) of the No. 1 seeds in the 14-team playoff format have reached the Super Bowl. While only the Chiefs won it all in that time frame, all-time No. 1 seeds have won 26 Super Bowls since 1975.

Even better, 16 of those 26 came from the NFC side.

Some of these historical statistics do have a bit of weight in the random plausibility category that comes with playoff formats, but when history is on your side, you don't complain about it.

The odds are generally in favor of the Lions as a first-timer with the No. 1 seed, should they get it. Since 1975, 15 times has a team taken advantage of its first No. 1 seed by reaching the Super Bowl.

Keep in mind, five teams - including Detroit - have never earned a No. 1 seed, though two of those teams have won Super Bowls (Jets and Buccaneers). Still, that means 15 of the 27 teams who have earned a No. 1 seed reach the Super Bowl, which is a considerable historical stat.

On seven of those 15 occasions, that team won the Super Bowl with its first No. 1 seed.

The trend kept to 50% rather consistently, so following the trend, the Lions are historically favored to reach and win the Super Bowl with their first experience with the No. 1 seed.

To sum it up simply / TLDR: Half the time, when a team secures the No. 1 seed for the first time, they reach the Super Bowl. Roughly half of those times, the team reaching the Super Bowl via their first No. 1 seed won the Lombardi Trophy.

It's worth noting that not all of these situations involved a team winning their first Super Bowl, just what they did the first time they had the No. 1 seed.

There are two paths to securing the No. 1 seed: the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17 while the Lions beat the San Francisco 49ers or the Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18 in what would likely be the final game of the 2024 NFL regular season.